I want to start this post with a line from the television show NCIS---A man walks into a bar and ask's the bartender for a glass of water.The bartender pulls out a shotgun and shoots it,just missing the man. The man say thanks ,puts a tip down on the bar and walks out. Now why did he say thanks and leave a tip.I will give you the answer at the end of this post,and you will understand how it ties in. Trust me.
According to the lastest Pew poll Egypt is very schizophrenic in what the people believe. But before we get into that, answer this question;Ever since the protests began two weeks ago, what is the one thing that has been missing.It is the one thing that has figured prominently in every protest that has happened in the middle east since the 1950's.Give up?not once in the two weeks of Egyptian protests has an American flag been burned .That in an of itself' should have been banner headlines around the world.All the more amazing given that the Pew poll reports that 82% of egyptians have an unfavorable view of the U.S.Then again 72% have an unfavorable view of Al-Qaida.Were as 52% think that suicide bombing is permitted under certain circumstances.While 84% think that the death penalty should be enforced for leaving Islam.
Now compare this with the 90% who believe in the freedom of religion and that democracy with it's protections of free speech,free assembly is perferable to any other form of government.80% place a high value on free speech, 88% on an impartial judiciary,while 75% believe in a media free of government censorship.Egypt has always been at war between those that favor a modernize Egypt versus Islamic fundamentalists.59% of egyptian's would pick Islamic fundamentalists, were27% would pick a modernize Egypt.32% want civilian control of the military.The one thing that tips the scale in favor of a modernize Egypt is the fact that the Egyptian army has always been an extenstion of the middle class,and as such would check the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood.
Schizophrenic would be a mild description of Egypt today. As they say in Arabic-Only Allah knows what's next.Now back to the riddle. A man walks into a bar and asks the bartender for a glass of water. The bartender pulls out a shotgun and fires it missing the man. At which point the man says thanks and puts a tip on the bar and walks out.Now why did he say thanks and leave a tip before walking out? The answer is that the man had hiccups.What was your answer? Assumptions will drive you crazy when you try to figure out something. This is especially true when trying to figure out which way Egypt will go in the future.See I told you that I would tie it up. Now I know how I believe Egypt will go, but the question is what do you think will happen in Egypt?